GLOBSEC Trends 2024 Poland
Euroscepticism is on the rise in Poland. Currently, 20% of Poles would vote for „Polexit” in the hypothetical referendum.
At the same time, already majority of Poles agree with the statement that European Union dictates what to do without Poland having power to influence it. Those indicators highlight quite significant political potential for further escalation of anti-EU sentiments and narratives. It is worth noticing, however, that these findings are result of an ongoing criticism and objection against EU policies on energy, agriculture and migration which are perceived by Polish society as contradictory with their own national interests.
Poland maintains its status as the most NATO-positive country in the region with 94% of Poles in favor of staying in the Alliance. Similarly, Polish society is resilient to Russian disinformation and propaganda with 90% of Poles agreeing that Russia is posing a security threat to Poland and 81% agreeing that Russia with its invasion is responsible for the conflict in Ukraine.
GLOBSEC Trends Survey provides data suggesting hesitancy regarding political future of Ukraine. Whilst still 39% of Poles agree that Ukraine should become a NATO and EU member, it’s worth noticing that for 11% of Polish society Ukraine should become a member of the EU exclusively, and for the 14% - NATO respectively. It is also important to highlight that already a quarter of Poles consider that Ukraine should maintain its neutral status, which in all likeliness would result in progressive falling into the Russian sphere of influence.
GLOBSEC Trends 2024 summarizes polling data on 9 Central and Eastern European countries: Bulgaria, Czechia, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, and Slovakia. Respondents were asked about the EU, NATO, Ukraine, strategic partners and threats, democracy and the perception of various societal groups. The poll does not only allow for highlighting regional differences, but some questions are used to track changes in public opinion over time.
The entire GLOBSEC Trends 2024 report in English is available here.